So You Want to Talk About Gun Policy

So You Want to Talk About Gun Policy?

The United States has a gun problem. But understanding that problem can be challenging. Here is a place to start unearthing the issue of gun violence and its potential policy solutions.

1. America has more guns than people, and gun violence is the leading cause of death for American children

First, though, let’s define the problem. The United States is a country of 330 million people and at least 390 million guns. If we talk about the number of guns that are manufactured, the statistics are even higher.

In 2022, American federal public health agencies declared gun violence the number one cause of death for American children. On average, 321 people are shot every day. These numbers are hard to understand, but we can break them down to understand what they mean in terms of gun access, racial inequalities, and the different forms of gun violence.

2. While mass shootings often make the headlines, most gun violence occurs as suicides and homicides

A mass shooting is usually defined by the Federal Bureau of Investigation as “any incident at which at least four people are murdered with a gun.”

Since 1999, when the world marked the decades of mass shootings after a horrific mass shooting at Columbine High School, there have been more than 380 school shootings and thousands more mass shootings. While these mass shootings have been terrible, they are not the majority of gun deaths. Rather, mass shootings only comprise about 1% of the annual gun violence in the United States.

The majority of gun deaths are suicides. In 2021, Pew Research Center reported that suicides comprised more than half of all gun violence in the United States. In the last year, the CDC reports that 22% of American students have seriously considered suicide. The primary concern with guns and suicide is that 90% of suicides with a gun are fatal, as opposed to 4% without a gun. Over the past 10 years, suicides among youth have increased by more than 50%.

The ridgeline plot below shows the percentage of suicides by firearms in US states from 2018 to 2021. Each “ridge” represents a different year as indicated on the Y axis. The horizontal axis indicates the percentage of firearm deaths across the United States. The color intensity represents the density, meaning the concentration of data points, or states, at a specific percentage of firearm deaths. The density scale is on the right, with darker colors indicating a higher density.

Each state has a percentage point of deaths by suicide involving a firearm. However some states have similar metrics which are represented by the “peaks” in the ridges. The greater the frequency, the higher the ridge. We use density here because a relative measure is useful for comparison. Density represents the proportion of data points within a small interval and is normalized so that the area under each curve sums up to 1.

Look at the peaks of each ridge to find the most common percentage range for firearm suicides each year. The peaks shift slightly towards higher percentages over the years. For instance, the peak in 2018 is around 60%, and it gradually moves right in subsequent years, with the peak in 2021 nearing 70%. The ridges also show the spread of the data, with wider bases indicating more variation among states in the percentage of suicides by firearms.

Homicides are when a person kills another. 43% of gun deaths in the United States were homicides, according to Pew Research Center in 2021. 3% of gun deaths include shootings by police and unintentional shootings, or tragic accidents. A tragic accident could include a child accidentally discharging a loaded, unsecured firearm inside their home. Police shootings also make up the “other” category. Every year, police kill more than 1,000 Americans and 96% of police killings are done with a firearm. One in every 20 homicides is a police killing.

3. Gun violence disproportionately impacts communities of color

Data consistently shows that gun violence disproportionality affects Americans of color. Black Americans are nearly ten times more likely to die from a gun homicide, and three times as likely to be shot by police than white Americans. These rates also disproportionately impact Hispanic and Latino Americans, for whom sixty percent of gun deaths are homicides. The Center for American Progress offers more statistics on these disparities, or you can see the graphic below about the disproportionate impact of gun violence on Americans of color. Pay close attention to the totals for each polar graph as the maximum for each metric varies greatly between different populations. In each chart, firearm deaths are sectioned by race and further subdivided by year. Along the radial axis, causes—homicide, suicide, undetermined, and unintentional—are specified, with exact death counts on the outer edge.

Firearm Deaths by Race, Year, and Cause
White and African Americans
2018–2021

Firearm Deaths by Race, Year, and Cause
Hispanic, Asian, Native, and Multiple Race Americans
2018–2021

These rates also disproportionately impact children of color. Check out the New York Times’s visual representation of gun violence and its impact on children in the United States.

4. Contrary to common narratives, gun violence in the United States is significantly worse in rural, more conservative areas

Politico recently created a highly-interactive piece challenging the common narrative that gun violence happens “in urban areas in the United States.” Check out the piece here.

Below, we have mapped gun deaths by county across the United States using the CDC’s Wonder portal. While the larger concentrations of gun deaths in densely populated areas is unsurprising, notice the patches across less populated rural areas in states like New Mexico, Louisiana, and Mississippi, which have some of the highest firearm death rates per capita in the United States. If disorder and mismanagement in big cities is responsible for the large amount of gun related deaths across urban areas of the United States, and not lax gun laws, then what accounts for these numbers in rural areas? According analysis of CDC data, and mentioned above, both suicides and homicides involving firearms are on the rise, something that is often overlooked when discussing gun legislation in rural states.

5. Although semi-automatic weapons like AR-15s make the news, most gun violence is conducted with handguns or handguns modified to act like a semi-automatic weapon

While crimes committed by assault weapons are horrific, the majority of gun violence, including suicides and homicides, is perpetrated with handguns. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF) reported that handguns were used in 75% of crimes in 2020, up from 62% in 2017.

Tracking this data can be difficult. If you want to read more about how to track this data federally, or especially where we are (Chicago), check out the page below:

6. It is difficult to talk about policies to address gun violence in the United States because the Constitution has an ambiguously-worded amendment that suggests a right to own guns

The Second Amendment of the US Constitution reads: “a well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.” If you feel confused, you’re not alone. What does a militia mean? Does that mean people can own a gun but only to be in a militia? And why does that comma violate every one of Harris Writing Program’s rules? The exact meaning of this amendment is the primary source of debate for Americans on both sides of the gun violence debate. This Al Jazeera article explains this debate well.

Read more about the debate over the second amendment below:

7. It is even harder to address gun violence in the United States because of the “gun lobby,” a powerful group of lobbying and membership organizations like the National Rifle Association (NRA) and the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF)

When you hear about the “gun problem” in the United States, you have probably also heard about the NRA. The NRA is just one of many organizations dedicated to protecting the rights of gun owners around the country. Further, it is committed to using its money and influence to secure political concessions from lawmakers so the government is limited in its ability to change gun laws. The gun lobby has advocated for laws like the Dickey Amendment and other state and federal laws that allow gun owners to continue to buy guns and gun manufacturers to continue to be shielded from any responsibility for malpractice. In 2023, OpenSecrets found that gun rights lobby groups spent about $13.2 million in federal lobbying, versus the $2.3 million spent by gun safety groups.

Read more about the lobby’s history here.

Read more about how the gun lobby influences gun policy below:

Read more about the major legal challenges to gun violence prevention below:

Although the gun lobby continues to advocate for gun rights, new data from NPR finds that a majority of Americans believe that controlling gun violence is more important than protecting gun rights. Six in ten Americans believe this to be true; this is the highest percentage in 10 years, and includes four in ten gun owners.

8. The gun lobby has limited public health agencies’ ability to research how to effectively reduce gun violence. The gun lobby has also made it nearly impossible to hold gun manufacturers accountable for gun violence conducted with their weapons

In 1996, the US Congress passed the “Dickey Amendment” to prevent any federal research that could “advocate or promote gun control.” The NRA lobbied for this amendment after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that gun access at home increased rates of violence. Although Congress loosened the language in the amendment in 2018, the amendment has essentially prevented any federal public health research into gun violence prevention.

Read more about the Dickey Amendment below:

The NRA also lobbied for the 2005 Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms ACT (PLCAA) which protects gun manufacturers and distributors from lawsuits by gun violence survivors. This federal law prevents gun violence survivors, or families of those who have been killed, from holding gun industry companies accountable for the violence their weapons have caused.

Read more about this law below:

To contextualize why the PLCAA is important, let’s think about the ways we hold other companies accountable for their products through regulation and compliance. From health products to kitchen appliances, we can expect the federal government to hold a company accountable if their product is faulty, especially if it can cause harm to the consumer. The electronics industry is highly regulated; it can cost a company upwards of $10,000 to get a certification for a consumer electronic device, and the company will be highly regulated both at home and abroad. Conversely, Federal Firearms Licenses (FFL) that enable individuals to deal or manufacture arms cost $150 and $200, respectively, with a fee of $90 to renew after 3 years and one site inspection at the time of application. Depending on FFL type, individual dealers and manufactures may purchase or sell arms across any state, but will always enjoy the protections of the PLCAA. In a country where not every American owns a phone, but there are more guns than Americans, it is striking that the gun industry is afforded such high protection and immunity.

In the last several years, some state governments have loosened these federal protections to allow victims to bring civil lawsuits against firearms corporations. Recent cases also challenge legal immunity for gun manufacturers who knowingly impose liability or potential harm. For example, law enforcement and civilians have raised several lawsuits against gun manufacturer Sig Sauer for negligence in manufacturing a gun many say discharges on its own. Such cases, especially with the backing of law enforcement, may increase legal challenges to this liability shield.

9. Here are the policies we know can work to reduce gun violence: secure storage laws and red flag laws

Secure storage laws are designed to define safe storage: “Inside a locked container, unloaded, ammunition locked separately” (Moms Demand Action). These laws can also require that schools and other providers communicate the importance of secure gun storage and can also encourage or mandate physicians to discuss secure storage at wellness check visits. According to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF), 1 million guns were stolen from private citizens between 2017 to 2021. Organizations such as Everytown for Gun Safety argue secure storage laws reduce the risk of this theft, citing that “households that locked both firearms and ammunition were associated with a 78% lower risk of self-inflicted firearm injuries and a 85% lower risk of unintentional firearm injuries among children and teens, compared to those that locked neither.”

Firearm Risk Protection Orders are commonly referred to as “Red Flag” laws because they allow a family member, law enforcement agent, or other person to notify authorities of warning signs or “red flags” that a person may have for causing harm to themselves or to others. With these warnings, authorities may confiscate any firearm in that person’s possession to reduce the risk of harm.

While there might be evidence of their effectiveness, red flag laws aren’t unanimously supported. An NPR poll found that one in seven respondents strongly oppose red flag laws. 24 percent of gun owners strongly oppose police-initiated orders and 20 percent strongly oppose family-initiated orders. Some legislators have concerns about government overreach in determining who might be ineligible to their Second Amendment rights, while others have concerns about the effectiveness of these laws.